Forecasting system(s)

According to the OECD case study of Flanders, published in 2024 , the skills forecasting framework in Flanders guides the development of essential skills intelligence to inform Flemish labour market policy at the regional, sectoral and business level. Mapping future competences underpins regional efforts to better align the supply of training and education with the evolving needs of the Flemish labour market. The framework applies an innovative, multilevel approach (macro, meso and micro) to skills forecasting, which targets different groups (citizens, companies, intermediaries, sector organisations, and others), and produces tailored insights that can be used by different target groups and for different purposes. 

The framework operates at three levels: 

Macro level: (future) changes in the labour market are analysed and monitored in order to implement proactive policies accordingly, by generating insights through trends observed at the sector, job and skills level. This has produced valuable projections at the occupational level (Beroepenprojecties – Centre of Expertise on Labour Market Monitoring (Steunpunt Werk)) and at the sectoral level (Sectorprojecties – Centre of Expertise on Labour Market Monitoring (Steunpunt Werk)). At the macro level, the Flemish government has commissioned an integrated labour market projection model. This is currently under development by the Centre of Expertise on Labour Market Monitoring (Steunpunt Werk, KULeuven) for implementation by 2026. The model will leverage both quantitative research (data-driven projection models) and qualitative information (e.g. an employer survey and expert group) to deliver important insights into skills requirements in Flanders.

Meso level: Strategic Skills Forecast (‘SCOPE’) projects are a highly useful tool for mapping changes in jobs and skills and forming flexible partnerships to respond to these changes. They aim to obtain more specific information about the expected skills and changes in tasks for a specific innovation, region, challenge, sector, cluster, or other category (e.g. battery technology, renovation strategy, food industry, and others). SCOPE projects, funded by the European Social Fund Plus (ESF+), have established many dynamic partnerships between stakeholders (in the fields of education and training, innovation and business) to carry out tailored skills studies and develop action plans to address local skills needs. Studies are conducted by a broad partnership of stakeholders, including innovation actors (spearhead clusters, innovative business networks, knowledge institutions), actors in the field of work (the sector federation, sector funds or social funds and companies) and the field of education and training (higher education, universities, VET, PES, etc.). All projects must devote attention to the advance of new technologies, digitalisation, and the transition to a circular and carbon-neutral economy. SCOPE studies are conducted using a designated methodology (‘VLAMT’) and are concluded with an action plan which commits partners to a number of strategies to tackle the identified skills needs.

Micro level (business level): Competence Checks promote a strategic and proactive human resources (HR) policy within companies, where sufficient attention is given to future skills changes and the implications for workforce development.

Skills development

The projections at the sectoral and occupational level are valuable to inform policy decisions. According to the OECD case study of Flanders, at the meso level, 27 SCOPE studies have been conducted since 2013. Notably, the ESF+ call for training proposals (“Training for the future”) in 2023, building on the results of SCOPE skills projections (or similar studies), established partnerships that delivered approximately 57 new or adapted training courses in one year. Thus, the projections of future skills needs act as a building block for the development of fit-for-purpose training courses. In addition to “Training for the future” projects, the results of the SCOPE studies have been employed by other stakeholders to adapt their training courses and education programmes. Sectors also use the results to adapt the occupational qualifications in the (Flemish) Qualification Framework (e.g. construction industry).

For vocational education, so-called professional qualifications (beroepskwalificaties) are used as a reference framework to shape the content of the training. The professional qualifications are drawn up together with the sectors and provide an idea of ​​the competencies that the labour market expects from a professional. Competent, a skills database maintained by VDAB, is the main tool for defining professional profiles. The database contains occupational competence profiles that describe what an individual needs to be able to do and know to perform a certain profession. In cooperation with users and partners, the content of an occupational profile is always adapted to labour-market needs, using information in the skills forecasts (Source: CEDEFOP).

In the 2024-2029 policy period, attention is paid to stimulating participation in life-long learning in order to reduce the quantitative and qualitative mismatch between the skills of workers and the needs of the labour market, now and in the future (Policy Paper Education and Training (2024-2029)).