3.3 Skills forecasting
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Forecasting system(s)
Statistics Sweden (Statistiska centralbyrån) has the government task to make long-term forecasts and analysis. The agency is also tasked to make analysis of trends in the interaction between education and labour.
The Forecasting Institute (Prognosinstitutet) within SCB makes analyses and forecasts in the long term with regard to labour market and in education. The forecast analyses are financed by the Ministry of Education and Research.
The long-term forecasts for education and labour are done every three years. The next report is to published by the end of 2023.
- Statistics Sweden (Report 2020)
The Ministry of Finance (Finansdepartementet) is responsible for issues concerning central government finances, including coordination of the central government budget, forecasts and analyses, tax issues and the management and administration of central government activities.
About every four years, the Ministry produces the report Long-Term Survey of the Swedish economy (Långtidsutredningen). The purpose of the report is to provide a basis for economic policy and to generate policy discussions. An other purpose is to provide a coherent picture of long-term economic development in Sweden. The most recent Long-Term Survey was conducted in 2019.
The Public Employment Service conducts twice annual forecasts on the development of the Swedish labour market in the near future. The forecasts are based on interviews with private and public employers and the results are presented in reports for both the whole country and by county.
The forecast work forms the basis for the development of the future labour market policy, including the web application Employment Forecast (Hitta yrkesprognoser). The web application presents job opportunities in the coming year for nearly 200 occupations. Together, these cover up to around 80% of the labour market.
Skills development
Higher education
The Swedish Higher Education Authority got in 2017 a government task to map how universities collaborate with external parties on issues of dimensioning education. The purpose of the assignment was to find ways for increasing cooperation between higher education institutions, working life and other relevant parties. In the report from 2018, the Higher Education Authority concludes that all universities cooperate with external parties when it comes to dimensioning of education. The higher education institutions also cooperate with each other in matters relating to the dimensioning of education. The prerequisites for collaboration are better for institutions that have a strong professional profiling, such as schools of applied sciences, technical universities and business schools.
Vocational Education and training (VET)
The number of study places in vocational programmes is decided by the industry’s demand. Above all, it is the region’s economic structure and the jobs available in a particular region that is considered when planning and deciding the number of study places and vocational training needed.
The Swedish National Agency for Higher Vocational Education (Myndigheten för yrkeshögskolan) has the government task to evaluate and monitor the quality of the VET programs.
Initiatives of raising awareness
Utbildningsguiden is a website maintained by the Swedish National Agency for Education, with extensive information on higher and vocational education and labour market applicability in Sweden. The website caters for upper secondary level educated young people and provides an overview of both occupational profiles and forecasts of how the labour market for professions will look like in the future. The forecasts used are from the Public Employment Service.
Studera.nu is a website hosted by The Swedish Council for Higher Education, with extensive information about university studies in Sweden and forecasts of the labour market situation for different programmes and occupations. The website caters for people living in Sweden who are interested in higher education and Ph.D. studies.