3.3 Skills forecasting
On this page
On this page
Forecasting system(s)
To assess labor market skill demands, the Employment Service Agency (ESA) regularly conducts research studies that provide short-term insights into employers' expectations regarding workforce needs. These studies help identify the skills required for new employment opportunities, ensuring that job seekers remain competitive. The findings serve as a foundation for designing active labor market programs and employment preparation measures, aimed at enhancing the skills of the unemployed and accelerating their integration into the workforce. Additionally, the research informs the development of local employment action plans and plays a role in shaping enrollment policies and new educational programs that align with labor market demands.
As a predictive tool for labor market trends, the HERMAC model was developed under the EU-funded Twinning Project "Support to the National Employment Policy" (MK2007/IB/SO/02). Designed for long-term forecasting and policy analysis, HERMAC integrates both labor demand and absorption capacity, enabling annual projections through 2025. The methodology is rooted in the HERMIN model (Bradley, 2000 & 2005), which was originally used to assess the macroeconomic impact of structural funds. Its adaptable framework makes it particularly useful for countries with limited labor market data. However, there is currently no clear evidence on whether policymakers actively use these forecasts when shaping employment strategies.
In 2023, the Employment Service Agency conducted the “Survey on the need for skills in the labor market in the Republic of North Macedonia for 2023”. The purpose of the survey research is to provide certain short-term indicators of employers' expectations regarding new employment and the skills needs that people should have, and how they could be competitive in the labor market. The latest 2023 research findings provide a basis for formulating active employment measures that enhance the skills of unemployed individuals. By aligning workforce supply with employer demand, these measures aim to create a more dynamic and responsive labor market, improving overall employability and economic efficiency.
Skills development
In the Operational Plan for Active Employment Measures 2024, one of the key measures targets creating new job opportunities and enhancing the employability of unemployed individuals, particularly targeting vulnerable groups such as youth, long-term unemployed persons, and recipients of guaranteed minimum assistance. The plan aims to support approximately 15,000 beneficiaries with a total budget of 2 billion denars.
Key Measures:
-
Employment Programs: Initiatives designed to reduce unemployment by creating job opportunities and improving employability, with a special emphasis on vulnerable groups.
-
Internships and Apprenticeships: Programs offering practical work experience to young individuals, enhancing their skills and facilitating their transition into the labor market.
-
Entrepreneurship Support: Measures aimed at fostering entrepreneurship through financial assistance, training, and mentorship, encouraging the establishment of new businesses and job creation.
-
Skills Development and Training: Programs focused on upgrading and improving the skills of job seekers, particularly in high-demand sectors such as digital skills, to increase their competitiveness in the labor market.
-
Youth Guarantee: Incorporation of the Youth Guarantee, ensuring that young people receive employment, education, or training opportunities within a specific period after becoming unemployed.
-
Support for Vulnerable Groups: Targeted actions for specific vulnerable groups, including youth, long-term unemployed individuals, and individuals in rural areas, with measures to improve their skills and facilitate their integration into the labor market.
-
Strengthening of Labor Market Services: Enhancement of the efficiency and reach of labor market services to better match job seekers with job opportunities, including the improvement of counseling, job placement, and guidance services.
These measures are designed to improve employment prospects, particularly for young people, while addressing broader labor market needs and increasing overall employment rates in the country.
In addition to these measures, there are several formal education institutions involved in skills development. These include general education schools, vocational institutions, and higher education providers. These institutions are integral to the development of curricula that respond to the evolving needs of the labor market. There is also a second-chance education program for adults who have not completed their formal education, with a focus on lifelong learning and adult education. This offers opportunities for upskilling and reskilling, ensuring that people have the chance to improve their qualifications at any stage of life.
Moreover, the quality assurance procedures in place for these educational institutions ensure that programs meet the required standards, contributing to the effectiveness of the skills development process. Mechanisms to determine the number of publicly funded study places are regularly evaluated to address skill shortages in the labor market and ensure the alignment of educational outputs with employment needs.
Outside of formal education, there are also numerous non-formal and informal learning initiatives aimed at developing relevant skills. These initiatives often involve projects and training programs run by non-formal education providers, such as local NGOs and community centers. These programs cater to various skill sets, including entrepreneurship, soft skills, and specialized technical fields.
Additionally, public authorities have launched awareness-raising campaigns to inform prospective students and job seekers about the main skills required in the labor market. These initiatives include information campaigns, public events, and dedicated publications that outline the most in-demand skills, such as those related to the digital economy, green technologies, and vocational trades. These efforts are aimed at guiding individuals towards educational pathways that align with labor market needs, thereby improving their employability prospects.
By integrating these formal, non-formal, and informal learning avenues, North Macedonia is working to create a comprehensive ecosystem that supports skills development and increases the employability of its workforce, particularly focusing on young people and vulnerable groups.