3.3 Skills forecasting
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Forecasting system(s)
In order to determine the skills needed in the labor market, the Employment Service Agency (ESA) conducts a research study that provides certain short-term indicators of employers' expectations in terms of new employment and the skills needs of persons to be disposed of, as they could be competitive in the labor market. The findings obtained from the survey for skills needs analysis provide the basis for creating active programs and measures for the preparation for employment, aimed at raising the skills of the unemployed, in order to increase their competitiveness in the labor market and faster employment. Also, the findings obtained from the survey research are also the basis for the preparation of local action plans for employment, and they can also serve in the drafting of the enrollment policy, while creating new educational programs for occupations that are in line with the needs of the labor market.
In October, the ESA conducted a survey on the need for skills in the labor market for 2020. The survey is carried out by the employees of the employment centers, and as support in the realization, unemployed persons from the records of the ESA are engaged as well. The results are expected to contribute to the creation of conditions for better functioning of the labor market, by matching the supply and demand of a suitably qualified workforce. They will also serve in the education system when conceiving the enrollment policies and creating new educational programs for occupations that are in line with the needs of the labor market.
As a tool for predicting the labor market based on market demand, the HERMAC model was developed under the Twinning Project "Support to the National Employment Policy" MK2007/IB/SO/02 (funded by the European Union). The project envisages making annual estimates by 2025. It is composed of two main parts: a demand side and an absorption side and is designed for long-term forecasting of labor market development and policy analysis. The model methodology is based on the original HERMIN model developed by Bradley (2000 and 2005) used mainly for analyzing macroeconomic impact of structural funds. The structure of the HERMIN allows its application also for countries with limited available data which was the case of the Beneficiary Country. There is currently no information on whether institutions consult the scenarios in the policy making process.
Skills development
According to the results of the above mentioned survey conducted by the Employment Service Agency, ESA is conducting training (for computer skills, language courses, handicrafts etc.) for unemployed people who are registered in ESA as active job seekers.
As digital skills are on high demand, in the Operational Plan for Active Employment Measures 2020 (Оперативен план за активни програми и мерки за вработување и услуги на пазарот на трудот за 2020 година) one of the six chapters is focused on development of digitals skills. This measure will cover 360 unemployed young people up to 34 years old. A total of 41.088.300 MKD denars are provided for implementation of this chapter. Compared to 2020, for 2021 in this part there are some changes, in Operational Plan for Active Employment Measures 2021 (Ревидиран Оперативен план за активни програми и мерки за вработување и услуги на пазарот на трудот за 2021 година) with the measure for development of digitals skills will cover 400 unemployment young people up to 34 years old and a total of 47.000.000 MKD are provided for implementation.