3.3 Skills forecasting
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Denmark has several forms of skills forecasting measures. The Ministry of Employment is responsible for most skills forecasting measures. The National Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment (STAR) is responsible for implementing and following up on the main part of the measures. Some analyses are made on a regular and short-term basis, others are ad hoc and long term.
Jobindsats is a public database containing relevant historic and current data on active labour market policies in Denmark. It also contains indicators of recent reforms. The primary purpose of jobindsats.dk is to create transparency regarding the work of the public employment service/job centres. Jobindsats.dk is targeted at local job centres with a specific focus on benchmarking and unemployment insurance funds, enabling job centres to carry out planning, management and follow-up procedures with respect to active labour market policies in their own municipality or unemployment insurance fund. Jobindsats.dk thus provides the best possible statistical foundation for decision-making.
Four times a year, STAR publishes an analysis on recruiting difficulties in Denmark (Rekrutteringssurveys). The analyses give an overview of the recruitment situation in the Danish labour market and are used as indicators of the recruitment difficulties of Danish companies. Companies are asked: • Was an attempt of recruitment unsuccessful? • How many people applied for a specific position? • Did an unsuccessful recruitment attempt mean loss of orders?
The reports are based on surveys among approximately 14 000 companies. The surveys provide an overview of recruitment problems in the different regions of Denmark and outline in which sectors the recruitment problems are most critical. The surveys are not forecasts as such, but the latest survey provides an overview of the development since 2006 and thus gives an indication of trends for labour shortage and demand of skills.
Labour Market Balance
Labour Market Balance (Arbejdsmarkedsbalancen) is a virtual tool that provides an overview of job opportunities in the different labour market regions. The labour market balance combines register data on unemployed persons, people in employment, the turnover in jobs, and a survey from companies on the need for labour and difficulties with recruitment.
Regional labour market councils (RAR)
Denmark has eight regional labour market councils (RAR) that coordinate the employment initiatives and the initiatives relating to recruitment problems and labour shortages. The RAR sections use the skills forecasting measures established by STAR and analyse them in a regional and municipal context. For instance, the Employment Barometer.
Employment Barometer is a tool to clarify the supply and demand of labour in the region and the municipalities.
Municipal forecasting (kommunefremskrivning) is a monitoring tool. The tool extrapolates developments in unemployment, employment, and the population in the local labour market. The current forecasting was updated in January 2021.
Ad hoc evaluations
In December 2019, the Ministry of Higher Education and Science published an analysis of the demand for new skills and competences in the maritime sector. Among other things, the report has analysed which competences and types of education employers requested in job advertisements from 2010 to July 2019. The report concludes, for instance, that there has been an increase in the demand for digital and highly specialised competences.
The skills forecasts are used directly and indirectly.
Direct use of the skills forecasting in Denmark
The skills forecasting is the basis for the selection of short vocational training programmes that unemployed people have access to through the regional education pool or the right to six weeks of job-oriented vocational training. This is to ensure that these short vocational training programmes are tailored to the demand of the labour market.
Indirect use of the skills forecasting in Denmark
The municipal forecasting is used in local job centres to establish objectives and in the strategic work with the municipal employment plan. The plan contains ministerial benchmarking targets and local strategies and visions for the labour market, education, and growth.
Skills development in higher education in Denmark
In 2014, the Ministry of Higher Education and Science launched an adjustment of student intake concerning fields of study that have had a systematically high unemployment rate, compared to other graduates from the higher education programmes.
The objective for the adjustment of student intake within certain higher education programmes is to transfer student admission from programmes with systematic and notably higher unemployment among graduates to programmes that have better employment prospects.
Furthermore, since 2013 all new higher education programmes must be pre-qualified. RUVU is a committee set up by the Minister of Higher Education and Science with the responsibility for the prequalification.
Prequalification is based on several criteria:
- The education must be relevant for the labour market
- The education should answer a demand in the total supply of educations
- The new education must be suitable in a socio-economic context and in the general education policy
Skils development in vocational education and training (VET) programmes in Denmark
As a consequence of the tripartite agreement II of 2016, some VET educations are included in the adjustment of student intake, which means that in order to be enrolled in certain vocational education programmes the pupil must have an education agreement with an enterprise. The adjustment began in 2018. The minister of children and education and the Council of Vocational Educations (REU) determine the adjustment each year.
Furthermore, some education programmes are on an advantage list (fordelsuddannelser) with good job and apprenticeship opportunities.
The Council for Vocational Training (REU) counsels the minister of children and education regarding VET programmes. The council monitors the development in society and recommends to the minister if there is a demand of new education programmes or if existing programmes should merge or be closed down.
With the tripartite agreement of May 2020, the government and the social partners agreed to discontinue the advantage list as of 1 January 2022.