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3. Employment & Entrepreneurship

3.3 Skills forecasting

Last update: 26 March 2024
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  1. Forecasting system(s)
  2. Skills development

Forecasting system(s)

Statistics Norway has an ongoing project for modelling and projection of supply and demand for labour after education. The aim is to project supply and demand for different types of educational directions and levels. This is done by combining the macro-econometric model MODAG with the job offer model MOSART

The Nordic Institute for Studies in Innovation, Research and Education (NIFU) [Nordisk institutt for studier av innovasjon, forskning og utdanning] conducts surveys among graduates from universities and colleges for their adaptation in the labour market [Kandidatundersøkelsen]. It involves, among other things scope of employment, unemployment, where the candidates are working and what kind of career they have and what they earn. In recent years Kandidatundersøkelsen has included questions relating to quality of education and relevance.

NHO’s Skills Barometer/Competency Barometer [Kompetansebarometer] is a survey undertaken by The Nordic Institute for Studies in Innovation, Research and Education (NIFU) for The Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise (Næringslivets Hovedorganisasjon - NHO). The survey is distributed to all the members of NHO.

Norwegian Committee on Skill Needs [Kompetansebehovsutvalget] was set up by the Government in 2017 to provide an evidence-based assessment of Norway’s future skill needs. This assessment will form the basis for planning and strategic decision making of both authorities and in the labour market, regionally and nationally. The committees work until 2020 has been to assess national and international research. A total of three reports have been submitted to the Ministry of Education and Research; NOU 2018: 2NOU 2019: 2 and NOU 2020: 2. The Committee will continue from 2020 to 2026 and will no longer produce Official Norwegian Reports but will:

  • Analyse and assess the available knowledge base and give the best possible evidence-based analysis and assessment of society’s future skill needs, including the education system’s ability to cover these needs.
  • Provide an analysis and assessment of the future skill needs both for the short, medium, and long term.
  • Facilitate and stimulate open dialogue and discussion about society’s skill needs with different stakeholders and society more generally. The Committee is to highlight the input from the social partners.
  • Produce at least one report every second year with analysis and assessment of Norway’s future skill needs, nationally and regionally. The Committee may on its own initiative raise issues that concern skill needs in separate reports, articles, or other documents.
  • The Committee’s work and products should be made relevant to the development of skill policies by national and regional authorities, including planning in the education sector.

Another committee was also set up in 2017 to assess the strengths and weaknesses of higher education as well as propose changes in its structure, organization, and professional composition in order to help students qualify for further education, working life and active community participation. This resulted in two Official Norwegian Reports; NOU 2018: 15 assessing whether upper secondary education has the structure and content to ensure that as many as possible complete upper secondary education. The second report NOU 2019: 25 considered various models for upper secondary education and proposes concrete changes in structure and subject composition.

Skills development

The Norwegian Agency for Quality Assurance in Education [NOKUT] is an independent expert body under the Ministry of Education and Research. The purpose of NOKUT is to ensure and promote quality in Norwegian higher education and higher vocational education, to approve and inform about foreign education and to inform about the possibilities for approval of foreign education and skills/competence in Norway. NOKUT administers regulations and exercises authority by accrediting and supervising Norwegian education and approving foreign education. The agency also generates, compiles, analyses, and disseminates knowledge about the state of quality in Norwegian education. NOKUT also works to ensure that foreign education and competence can be effectively used in Norway.

Skills Norway, an underlying directorate of the Ministry of Education and Research, works to ensure that adults, whether in work or not, have access to the skills training they need. The directorate reviews the evidence base and submits recommendations to government authorities and other parties to bring about skills policy development. Skills Norway is also involved in international cooperation and is the current national coordinator for the European Agenda for adult learning. Skills Norway also acts as the secretariat for the national council for tertiary vocational education [Nasjonalt fagskoleråd] and has a coordinating role for the Nordic Network for Adult Learning [Nordisk Nätverk för Vuxnas Lärande, NVL]. is the official Norwegian national education and career portal. It includes an overview of educations in Norway and about 600 career descriptions. Both education and career information have been developed in close collaboration with relevant institutions, such as study providers and professional bodies. also contains interviews with professionals and students, study descriptions and articles which have been designed to help prospective students select education and career. is a part of the site, but particularly catered to career counsellors. The forum offers information, training opportunities, research and statistics, possibilities to network, tools and new approaches to coaching and guidance.

Both websites are run by the Norwegian Directorate for Education under the Norwegian Ministry of Education and Research. is s a web-based knowledge portal about working life, headed by the Institute For Labour and Social Research [FAFO], to provide simple, basic background information about current issues in Norwegian working life and society for trade union representatives and members.