Forecasting systems

Top-level schemes and mechanisms

BiH has been progressively developing its labour market and skills forecasting systems, albeit within a complex and decentralized administrative framework. These efforts are crucial for aligning education and training with labour market demands, especially in the context of EU accession aspirations.

Recent labour market research and forecasting initiatives have focused on enhancing the capacity of public employment services to conduct labour market research.

The EU has financed projects aimed at improving labour market research methodologies. These projects have trained over 600 employees of public employment services in conducting standardized employer surveys and labour market analyses. The resulting reports are intended to inform policy creation and are disseminated through platforms like trzisterada.ba. Labour market surveys on employer needs have been conducted using harmonized methodologies across BiH, providing valuable data for policymaking.

BiH's statistical system is characterized by its decentralized structure, which poses challenges for data harmonization and efficient functioning. The BiH Agency for Statistics (BHAS) is the central statistical agency responsible for compiling and disseminating national statistics, including employment and wage data. Entity-level statistical institutes, the FBiH Statistical Institute and RS Institute of Statistics collect data within their jurisdictions.

In response to demographic changes, particularly internal migration and an aging workforce, efforts have been made to forecast educational needs. UNFPA BiH, in collaboration with the UNFPA Eastern Europe and Caucasus Regional Office (EECARO), has initiated a consultancy project in 2024 to forecast student enrollments and teacher workforce requirements in Sarajevo Canton. These forecasts aim to inform strategic planning in the education sector. An analysis of the impacts of demographic changes across the region has been undertaken under the project. To this end, UNFPA has also initiated comprehensive studies including the Population Situation Analysis in BiH, Effects of Population Changes on the Provision of Public Services in BiH, and Survey on Youth Emigration. These studies aim to identify and elucidate both the causes and consequences of demographic shifts in BiH.

Coordinating authorities and cross-sectoral cooperation

The BiH Agency for Labour and Employment is a state-level agency that coordinates employment services across BiH, working in conjunction with entity and cantonal employment institutes. It plays a pivotal role in implementing labour market policies and facilitating cooperation among various levels of government.

Efforts have been made to enhance collaboration between public authorities and social partners. Under the consultancy project, UNFPA BiH and EECARO have been establishing Policy and Practice Communities (PPCs) in Banja Luka and Sarajevo to enhance the capacity of BiH institutions at all levels to effectively address these demographic shifts. These communities gather practitioners, policymakers, service providers, and experts to explore innovative solutions that could mitigate the adverse effects of population changes.

Outputs and dissemination

The primary outputs of these forecasting systems include regular labour market reports detailing employment trends, skill shortages, employer needs and educational forecasts and projections of student enrollments and teacher workforce requirements to inform educational planning. These outputs are disseminated through official websites of the BiH Agency for Statistics, BiH Agency for Labour and Employment and entity-level statistical institutes and employment services and are used to inform policy decisions at various government levels. 

Skills development

BiH has been actively working to align its education and training systems with labor market demands, focusing on both formal and non-formal education pathways. 

The RS Government has included skills forecasting into its Employment Policy 2021-2027: “Development of skills of unemployed people for active job search”. This measure refers to the financing and implementation of continuous support to unemployed people in finding a job, i.e., their training to realize their capacities as efficiently as possible on the labour market.

The Strategic Directions of Career Orientation Development in FBiH 2015 – 2020 includes among the most important conclusions and recommendations the following:

• Establish career development centres at higher education institutions.

• Enabling the development of centres for lifelong learning (LLL), enabling and deepening the professional knowledge, skills and ability to adapt the labour market programs, i.e., aligning adult education programs with labour market needs, monitoring the development of science and scientific achievements of the profession.

The FBiH Employment Policy (2023–2030) contains four strategic goals and several key outcomes to be pursued promoting full, productive and freely chosen employment, and one of them is:

• Increasing personal employability and improving skill alignment with market demands.

This goal has two quantitative goals: reducing the number of people with low qualifications for 10% and an increase in the number of people working jobs that suit their qualifications by 20%. Improving the situation on the labour market requires competitor companies that can create more quality jobs.

The BD Government in its general Development Policy contains the measure 2.1.2. Support for educational programs and lifelong learning (retraining/additional education) in accordance with labour market needs. The intention is education to employ persons who due to incomplete knowledge/qualifications cannot find an adequate job, and for those who were educated for occupations that are no longer in demand and do not have additional training for knowledge and skills with advancements in technical and technological development.

The measure implies (in cooperation with the Chamber of Commerce and the Association of Employers) to define which are currently in short supply occupations, whether there are curricula with the same, and in cooperation with the Tripartite Advisory Council to request enrolment of students in these deficient occupations, and to introduce a scholarship model for students in these occupations.

Additionally, this way both employers and workers will have extra assurance that lifelong learning and adult education programs are flexible and adaptable to their needs, which will eventually increase the satisfaction of citizens with the educated opportunities of ¸BD BiH.

Formal education: Aligning with labor market needs

Efforts are underway to modernize vocational education and training (VET) to better match labor market requirements. This includes the development of occupational standards and curricula that reflect current industry needs. However, challenges persist due to the decentralized nature of the education system, leading to inconsistencies across different regions.

The Agency for Development of Higher Education and Quality Assurance (HEA) oversees the accreditation of higher education institutions. While steps have been taken to align with European Standards and Guidelines, a fully functional system of accreditation for study programs is still lacking.

Adult education is regulated by entity and cantonal laws, with schools authorized to organize adult training programs. However, the availability of retraining and upskilling centers is limited, with only a few centers located in Bihac, Sarajevo, and Siroki Brijeg.

Non-formal and informal learning: Bridging the skills gap

Organizations like the Center for the Development of Non-Formal Education (CRNO) are empowering young people through various programs aimed at developing practical skills and fostering active citizenship. Their initiatives include mentoring programs, innovation hubs, and interpersonal skills development workshops.

The ALDI Association, with EU support, has established training programs focusing on digital skills and soft skills to enhance youth employability. These programs include short courses and practical work on digital product development.

The "Youth Ambassadors of Non-Formal Learning – Phase 2" project aims to build the capacities of youth through participation in non-formal education activities and to enhance the recognition of competencies gained outside the formal educational environment.

The Youth Retention Program in BiH - General Mobilization project was implemented from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2023. The aim of this project was to strengthen and increase the capacities of youth civil society organizations to participate in reforms for the education and employability of youth in BiH. Through the project, a network of young experts, professionals, and representatives of lawyer chambers for employment and education was established, with the goal of enhancing the capacities and competencies of youth civil society organizations and increasing the lawyer chambers' impact on political development, policies, and strategies in the fields of education and employment. The project improved the legal and political relationship towards youth through collaboration between relevant employment institutions and relevant institutions at all levels of government and raised awareness of the importance of employment for the loss of young population in BiH. The program was funded by the European Union in BiH and implemented by the NGO "Nešto Više" in collaboration with the PRONI Center for Youth Development.